Sam's Blog

An Interesting Problem

The following problem was posed by a mathematician. He has a site where he posts interesting problems for non-mathematicians to think about. https://www.expii.com/solve/3/3

The World Health Organization has just identified a new disease. The good news is that it is very rare: only 1 in every million people has it. The bad news is that it is very deadly. There is a test available that can tell you whether or not you have the disease. It gives the correct diagnosis 99% of the time. This means that if someone with the disease is tested, the test will say "positive" 99% of the time and "negative" 1% of the time; if someone without the disease is tested, it will say "negative" 99% of the time and "positive" 1% of the time. You take the test, and it comes up "positive". Oh no! Before you start to panic, what is the probability that you definitely have the disease? Round your calculation to the nearest whole percent.

Think about this if you want.

Work

Let's work on those Feltrons yo! Apparently next Tuesday is our last class. As long as you turn them in before camping, though, you're fine.

Comments

Unknown said…

( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

March 10, 2016 at 9:09 AM

Unknown said…

omg!! i found out the answer and i found the hidden thingy!!! THIS IS CRAZY!!!!

March 13, 2016 at 6:51 PM

Feltron Variables - Monday 2/1/2015

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Marvin Minsky, AI, Math Education

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