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Experimental and Theoretical probabilities


[NOTE: Skim this whole post before doing the work; I promise it's a good idea.]

How can you get a feel for probability? It's all well and good to say the probability of getting heads is 1/2, but we know that if you flip a coin 2 times, you aren't guaranteed to get one heads and one tails. We could flip a coin 10 times and get all 10 heads. It feels less likely that if we flip a coin 100 times, all 100 will be heads... but at this point our intuition starts to fade. So we simulate!

Plan

  • Open Google Drive and start a new spreadsheet
  • Use the function RANDBETWEEN(smallNumber, bigNumber) to make a random number that is either 0 or 1: 0 for tails, 1 for heads.
  • Use the function IF(test, valueIfTrue, valueIfFalse) to make a column that says "Heads" or "Tails" depending on the first column.
  • Use conditional formatting to highlight heads.
  • Look for streaks. 
Next
  • As of 2014, in America, the odds of dying are 864 in 100,000. That is, in an oversimplified model, if you grouped people into groups of 100,000, and gave them each a number between 1 and 100,000, the people who got 864 or lower would be dead. 
  • Use RANDBETWEEN() and IF() to simulate 1,000 people's year. How many die?
As you do these things, fill in this form



Need help? I made these; they might be useful. Sorry I sound tired... It's because I am.

Coin flipping simulations:

Odds of dying simulations: 

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